FAQ on Economy & Prices

  • What is balance of payments (BOP)?
  • What is external debt?
  • What is international investment position (IIP)?
  • What makes up the household sector in the Household Sector Balance Sheet?
  • What are growth cycles and the Composite Leading Index?
  • Does the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) capture unpaid work such as volunteering?
  • What is personal saving and how does it differ from bank savings?
  • Why is there a huge difference in Economic Development Board (EDB)’s data on Principal Statistics of Manufacturing by Industry Cluster – Employment and Ministry of Manpower (MOM)’s data on Annual Employment Level – Manufacturing? Which one should I use?
  • What is seasonal adjustment, and the significance of seasonally adjusted (SA) data in time series analysis?
  • Supply, Use and Input-Output Tables (SU-IOTs)

  • What is the output multiplier?
  • How are the Input-Output Tables (IOTs) used?
  • What is the Value-Added (VA) multiplier?
  • Consumer Price Index

  • What is the CPI?
  • How is the CPI used?
  • How often is the CPI rebased?
  • What does the CPI basket cover?
  • How are the CPI weights derived?
  • How are the quarterly and annual (yearly) Consumer Price Index (CPI) derived from the monthly CPI?
  • What is the weighting pattern for 2019-based CPI for general households?
  • What are imputed rentals on Owner-Occupied Accommodation (OOA)?
  • How are CPI prices collected?
  • Why is my inflation experience different from the CPI?
  • When is the CPI released?
  • Producer Price Index

  • What is Producer Price Index (PPI)?
  • Where can I find the producer and international trade price indices at the industry level?
  • Why are rebasing exercises conducted?
  •  

    What is balance of payments (BOP)?

    Singapore's BOP is a statement that summarises the economic transactions between Singapore residents and non-residents. These transactions occur during a specific time period. It consists of the current account, and the capital and financial account.

     

    What is external debt?

    Singapore's external debt is the outstanding amount of actual current, and not contingent liabilities owed to non-residents by Singapore residents. The values reflected are as at a point in time. It is also part of external liabilities in Singapore's international investment position (IIP).

     

    What is international investment position (IIP)?

    Singapore's IIP is a statement that shows the value and composition of cross-border financial assets and liabilities of Singapore at a point in time. Financial assets and liabilities comprise mainly three broad categories (1) equity and investment fund shares, (2) debt instruments, and (3) other financial assets and liabilities such as financial derivatives.

    The difference between Singapore's external financial assets and liabilities is Singapore's net IIP, which may be positive or negative. A positive net IIP would mean that an economy is a net creditor to the rest of the world while a negative net IIP would indicate that an economy is a net debtor to the rest of the world.

     

    What makes up the household sector in the Household Sector Balance Sheet?

    Household sector in the Household Sector Balance Sheet refers to all household institutional units that have engaged in economic activities in Singapore for at least a year, including:

    • Singapore citizens
    • Permanent residents
    • Foreigners
    • Unincorporated enterprises (e.g., sole proprietorships)

    Data on the household sector balance sheet are compiled on an aggregated basis from a macro perspective. Hence, data on mean/median household wealth, assets and liabilities, by household and socio-demographic characteristics and by income or wealth deciles are not available.

     

    What are growth cycles and the Composite Leading Index?

    In the business cycle literature, there are three types of cycles, namely: the classical cycle, growth cycle and growth rate cycle. Singapore’s economic activity is characterised by growth cycles, rather than classical cycles or growth rate cycles as it has generally been on an upward trend with relatively stable growths. Growth cycles are fluctuations in the growth rate of an economy. Since the 1985 recession, six growth cycles have been identified for the Singapore economy. The dates of peak and trough are identified from the growth cycles via statistical algorithms.

    The Composite Leading Index (CLI) is a predictive tool to anticipate upturns and downturns in the economy and to gauge if, and approximately when, an expansion or recession will take place. Singapore’s CLI comprises nine economic indicators that exhibit leading relationships with the growth cycles of the economy. These leading indicators have been selected based on a set of key criteria including economic significance, cyclical properties, timeliness, periodicity, and statistical quality of the data series.

    For more information, you may refer to the information paper on Singapore’s Growth Cycle Chronology, Coincident and Leading Indicators. For latest updates to the growth cycle chronology, please refer to the Statistics Singapore Newsletter Issue 2, 2023 article. pdf(792 KB)

     

    Does the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) capture unpaid work such as volunteering?

    GDP measures the market value of the goods and services produced in an economy. In line with international statistical standards outlined in the System of National Accounts, GDP does not include unpaid work such as volunteer work. Economies, including Singapore, follow these standards when computing GDP to ensure the international comparability of estimates.

    Nonetheless, the value of volunteer work may be monitored through indicators beyond GDP, such as volunteering rates, hours volunteered, which are published by the National Volunteer & Philanthropy Centre.

     

    What is personal saving and how does it differ from bank savings?

    Personal saving in national accounts refers to the difference between personal disposable income and private consumption expenditure on goods and services. It differs from the common perception of bank savings, which often refers to the amount of deposits in bank accounts. Instead, personal saving is the amount of available funds after consumption and before the purchase of assets or repayment of debts.

    Personal disposable income measures the income of the personal sector (e.g., compensation of employees, self-employment income, gross operating surplus on ownership of dwellings and private non-profit institutions), after accounting for net property income received (i.e., interests and dividends), net current transfers received and personal income tax paid.

     

    Why is there a huge difference in Economic Development Board (EDB)’s data on Principal Statistics of Manufacturing by Industry Cluster – Employment and Ministry of Manpower (MOM)’s data on Annual Employment Level – Manufacturing? Which one should I use?

    EDB’s employment data are compiled from their Annual Census of Manufacturing survey (CMA). The CMA gathers data on the entire industrial sector with establishments engaging in activities of manufacturing and industrial servicing. These activities are classified in Section C of the Singapore Standard Industrial Classification (SSIC) 2020 edition. EDB's data are survey based and based on a representative sample of manufacturing establishments, i.e., not all manufacturing firms in Singapore are covered. Firms with more than 20 workers are surveyed with certainty while firms with lesser than 20 workers are sampled. More information on CMA are available at Report Census of Manufacturing Activities.

    For policy decision making purposes, it is more appropriate to use employment data from administrative sources i.e., MOM, as they are the official source for manpower statistics. For clarifications on the CMA results, you may contact EDB at rsu@edb.gov.sg.

    MOM’s data on number of workers employed in the manufacturing sector are compiled primarily from administrative records, with the self-employed component estimated from the Labour Force Survey. The employment data are as of year-end, i.e. end-December of each year. More information on the source and coverage are available on MOM’s Website. For clarifications, you can contact MOM at mom_rsd@mom.gov.sg.

     

    What is seasonal adjustment, and the significance of seasonally adjusted (SA) data in time series analysis?

    Seasonal adjustment is the process of estimating and removing the calendar and seasonal effects from a time series so as to show its underlying trend and short-term movements clearly. The seasonally adjusted time series facilitate a better assessment of their recent movements, including the timely identification of turning points.

    Our Department adopts the X12-ARIMA procedure in carrying out seasonal adjustments, which is developed by the US Census Bureau and widely used among national statistical offices and international agencies.

    The procedure works on a basis of iterative estimations, alternately estimating the trend-cycle and seasonal components using various moving-average filters, before finally deriving the estimates of the seasonally adjusted series.

    The non-seasonally adjusted (NSA) data show the actual economic events that have occurred, while the seasonally adjusted (SA) data represents an analytical elaboration of the data designed to show the underlying movements that may be hidden by the seasonal variation. SA series is especially useful during instances where the NSA series contains strong seasonal patterns which may hinder detailed in-depth data analysis. SA data facilitates analysis by supplementing the information presented by the NSA data.

    It is possible that the non-seasonally adjusted (NSA) data shows an increase over the previous month but the seasonally adjusted (SA) data shows a decrease, when the increase is less than the usual seasonal increase. To illustrate, consider the retail sales index (RSI) which tends to increase sharply in December during the festive season. Suppose that an economic downturn results in a weak performance of the retail sector, the unadjusted RSI for December might still show a moderate increase over November. But because this increase is lower than that for a typical December, the seasonally adjusted RSI for December would be lower than the corresponding seasonally adjusted RSI for November.

    For more information on seasonal adjustments of time series, you may refer to the Information Paper on Seasonal Adjustment of Economic Time Series. pdf (254 KB) You could also refer to the article on Seasonal Adjustments of Time Series pdf (31 KB) .

     

    What is the output multiplier?

    The output multiplier represents the total output produced by all industries in response to a dollar increase in final demand for an industry's output. There are 2 types of output multipliers - simple and total.

    For more information, you may view the Output Multiplier infographic. pdf(385 KB)

     

    How are the Input-Output Tables (IOTs) used?

    Input-Output Tables (IOTs) can be used to simulate the economic impact due to changes in final demand, such as from policies implemented, on key aggregates like Output, Value-Added and Compensation of Employees. You may refer to the article on Using Input-Output Tables in Simulation pdf(553 KB) for an illustration on using the IOTs in simulation.

    Another use of the IOTs is measuring economic interdependency:
    Backward and forward linkages measure the economic interdependence between industries.

    For more information, you may view the Connecting the Dots Between Industries: Linkages infographic. pdf(228 KB)

     

    What is the Value-Added (VA) multiplier?

    The VA multiplier represents the total VA generated by all industries in response to a dollar increase in final demand for an industry’s output.

     

    What is CPI?

    The CPI is designed to measure the average price changes of a fixed basket of consumption goods and services commonly purchased by the resident households over time. It is widely used as a measure of consumer price inflation.

     

    How is the CPI used?

    • As a measure of consumer price inflation
    • As inputs in the formulation of government economic policies
    • As a means of maintaining dollar values in the compilation of economic statistics

     

    How often is the CPI rebased?

    The CPI is rebased once every five years to reflect the latest consumption patterns and composition of goods and services consumed by resident households. The latest base year for the CPI is 2019.

     

    What does the CPI basket cover?

    • Consumption expenditure incurred by resident households are covered in the CPI
    • Includes goods and services commonly purchased by households from a wide range of retailers and service providers
    • About 6,800 brands/varieties from 4,200 outlets are selected in the 2019-based CPI

     

    How are the CPI weights derived?

    The CPI weights reflect the relative importance of each good or service in the basket. The weighting pattern for the 2019-based CPI was derived from the expenditure values obtained from the Household Expenditure Survey (HES) conducted between October 2017 and September 2018, and updated to 2019 values by taking into account price changes between 2017/18 and 2019.

     

    How are the quarterly and annual (yearly) Consumer Price Index (CPI) derived from the monthly CPI?

    As the CPI is compiled on a monthly basis, the quarterly index is derived by taking a simple average of the 3 months' indices for the quarter. Similarly, the yearly index is derived by taking a simple average of the 12 months' indices for the year.

    The annual inflation rate for a specific year is computed by comparing the average for the 12 monthly indices with that for the preceding year.

     

    What is the weighting pattern for 2019-based CPI for general households?

    cpi2019basket

     

    What are imputed rentals on Owner-Occupied Accommodation (OOA)?

    The cost of OOA reflects the costs to homeowners of utilising the flow of services provided by their homes over an extended period of time. Given that the cost of using housing services is not directly observed for homeowners, it is computed based on the imputed rental concept under the rental equivalence method, i.e., proxied by market rentals. Housing price is not considered in the CPI as it has a high investment component and is treated as a capital good. Under this concept, the OOA cost is measured in terms of the expected rental the owner would have to pay if he/she was a tenant of the premises. The pricing indicator for OOA cost is the rental data for the entire rental market. Imputed rentals have no impact on the cash expenditures of most households in Singapore as they already own their homes.

     

    How are CPI prices collected?

    • Prices are obtained via postal/email enquiries, electronic returns, webscraping data from relevant websites and administrative data. Prices of perishable food items are collected by field interviewers.
    • The frequency of data collection depends on price behaviour of the good or service. Those goods and services with volatile prices (e.g. perishable food items such as seafood, meat and vegetables) are surveyed every week while those with more stable prices such as service & conservancy (S&C) charges for HDB flats, utility tariffs, bus/train fares, school fees, medical services and household durables are priced monthly, quarterly, half-yearly, yearly or as and when the prices/rates change.

     

    Why is my inflation experience different from the CPI?

    The CPI reflects the collective experience of inflation for all households. It does not correspond to the inflation experience of any particular household since every household’s spending pattern is unique. Depending on the goods and services purchased by each individual household, changes in prices will impact each household to a different extent. Those who spend more on those items with rapid price increases will feel a greater impact of inflation than others, and vice versa.

    For more information, you may view the Why does the Reported Inflation Differ from My Personal Experience? Infographic.

     

    When is the CPI released?

    The CPI is released on the 23rd of every month, or on the following working day if the 23rd falls on a Saturday, Sunday or a public holiday.

     

    What is Producer Price Index (PPI)?

    PPIs measure the rate of change in prices of products/services sold as they leave the producers. They exclude any taxes, transport and trade margins that the purchaser may have to pay. PPIs provide measures of average movements of prices received by the producers of various products and services. They are often seen as advanced indicators of price changes throughout the economy, including inflation as measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI).

    For the full list of PPIs that the Department of Statistics currently publishes, you may refer to SingStat Table Builder via the following selections: Economy & Prices >> Prices and Price Indices >> Producer Price Indices (DSPI, SMPPI and SPPI).

     

    Where can I find the producer and international trade price indices at the industry level?

    The producer and international trade price indices are not available at the industry level. Producer and international trade price indices are compiled according to the commodity groups as defined by the international classification: Standard International Trade Classification (SITC) Rev. 4.1

     

    Why are rebasing exercises conducted?

    A rebasing exercise is conducted periodically to ensure that the weighting structure and coverage of products measured in the price index are representative of the current activities and market share of the industry.

    To find out more about the weighting structure for PPIs, you may refer to the information papers on the rebasing of PPIs.